Tech Sports Blog

[The following post was published at HokieHaven.com on October 24, 2007.]

With week 8 now in the books, we are now just over halfway through the college football regular season, and what a half season of college football we have seen! It seems like every week there have been monumental upsets, and the top 10 of the rankings have essentially been a revolving door of teams. The Hokies are back in top 10 as well, right where we thought they’d be at 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the ACC, but the road to this point has been bumpy with some unforeseen twists and turns.

Instead of rolling through our early opponents and playing LSU tough, the Hokies have had issues moving the ball on offense in those early games, and they were completely dominated in Baton Rouge. Our defense didn’t look stellar the first few weeks, our offense had a non-existent running game, a true freshman was taking snaps, and doubts crept into the minds of the Hokie Nation. After a lackluster homecoming win over North Carolina, a nervous Hokie Nation wondered if things were going to get worse before they got better.

After a nice win on the road at Clemson and during the clobbering of Duke that led toTech’s 4 straight win, a funny thing happened in Durham: the Hokies, players and fans alike, got their swagger back.

While everyone reminds themselves that it was “just Duke”, it was still the kind of lopsided win that we hadn’t seen in awhile, and it renewed our hopes of a possible ACC championship. The offense began to move the ball with ease, the defense gave Duke no room to breath, and special teams finally blocked a kick. The players were having fun, and the fans now feel a sense of genuine excitement for the upcoming stretch of games that will make or break this season for the Virginia Tech Hokies.

What stretch of games the Hokies have left on their schedule! Boston College on Thursday night for a top 10 match-up; on the road to Atlanta for another Thursday night game versus Georgia Tech; the familiar foe in the Miami Hurricanes; the much anticipated in-conference visit by Florida State; and a trip to Charlottesville to take on UVA in a game that may decide the division.

Georgia Tech, Miami, and Florida State may not be performing up to expectations, but the fact remains that last five opponents are a significant upgrade in competition when compared to the six teams we have beat. I wanted to quantify this, so I pulled up the statistics of all of the teams on Tech’s schedule. I put a bunch of their stats into a spreadsheet and separated them by whom we have played (7 teams), whom we have beat (6 of those 7), and whom we have yet to play (the remaining 5). For each stat line, I calculated the average for each group. For example, the first seven teams we have played are averaging 379 yards of total offense, the six we beat average 370 yards of total offense, and the five we have left are averaging 371 yards of total offense.

Not surprisingly, every team on our schedule ranks ahead of the Hokies in total offense. At 299 yards per game, Virginia Tech is ranked 112th nationally out of 117 Football Bowl Division (Division 1-A) teams. (Side note: Notre Dame is averaging 188 yds/gm and is ranked dead last in total offense. Ouch.) The good news is that Boston College is the only remaining opponent that are nationally in the top half of that category. The Eagles are gaining an average of 455 yds/gm, which ranks 16th nationally. Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia are 63rd (391 yds/gm), 88th (346 yds/gm), 96th (338 yds/gm), and 101st (327 yds/gm), respectively.

One could argue that total offense is meaningless, and that the number of points an offense puts on the board is the key stat. That category is a very different story. Virginia Tech’s offense is ranked 55th nationally by scoring roughly 28 points per game. As a group, the first seven opponents are averaging 29 points per game. If you take LSU out of the equation, the six we beat average 28 pts/gm. The remaining five are averaging 27 pts/gm. The Hokies are ranked ahead of every remaining opponent in this category except for Boston College. BC is scoring approximately 35 pts/gm (29th nationally). (GT: 57th @ 28 pts/gm; FSU: 85th @ 24 pts/gm; Miami: 70th @ 25 pts/gm; UVA: 89th @ 22 pts/gm)

The huge disparity between the Hokies’ total offense (112th) and scoring offense (55th) is a very interesting statistic to me. This large of a disparity doesn’t exist for any of our opponents (past & future), so what gives? Defense and special teams must account for this difference. The Virginia Tech defense is among the nation’s best by allowing 302 yards per game and 16 points per game. That’s good enough for 13th and 8th nationally, so you have to like how we match-up with the remaining offenses. That said, there is still some doubt as to how our offense will respond over the next 5 weeks. The opposing defenses they are going to face are much better than most of the first seven opponents.

The six teams we beat are allowing an average of over 390 yards and 30 points per game, with a nearly even turnover margin. However, the remaining five teams are allowing nearly 80 yards and 12 points less per game with better turnover margins. Those defenses are much more stout than the likes of East Carolina, Ohio, and Duke. None of the remaining teams have a negative turnover margin. I know I’m stating the obvious when I say this, but the Virginia Tech offense is going to have to improve in order for us to run the table.

The third phase of the Hokies, specials teams, has the pleasant surprise of the year. They were thought to be a liability before the fall, but they have been a rock for the team. Brent Bowden has been superb punting the ball, Jud Dunlevy has been solid kicking field goals, and Eddie Royal has been dangerous returning the ball. We rank 24th nationally in net punting, as we are netting 37 yards per punt. Brent Bowden has punted 48 times this year and 19 of those punts have been downed inside the 20. As a comparison, the first seven opponents average a net of 32 yds/punt, while the remaining five average a net 37 yds/punt. This is yet another example of the stiffer competition we are about to face.

On the flip side of punting, the Hokies rank amongst the nation’s elite at returning punts. Tech is 7th best team in the nation averaging 17 yards per punt return. This is 10 yards better when compared to the first seven opponents as a group, as they are averaging just under 7 yards per punt return. Our last five opponents are a little better at returning punts, as they average just over 9 yards per punt return as a group. Georgia Tech and Florida State are the best of who’s left at 11 yards per punt return, Miami and Virginia gain 9 yards per punt return, and Boston College gains 6 yards.

So, what do all these numbers mean? They mean that our poor offensive numbers aren’t quite as bad as they look. Our defense has turned things around since LSU and are playing lights out. They are giving the offense short fields to work with. When the offense hasn’t gotten it done, Brent Bowden has punted extremely well to put the opposing team deep in their own territory.

They also mean that it’s “go time” for the Hokies. As a group, the remaining five teams are significant upgrade in competition over the first seven (again, as a group). While we are right were we thought we’d be, we have a long way to go before we can earn a trip to Jacksonville on December 1st. Following a weekend off, there is no easing back into the swing of things. Tech jumps in the deep end when they face Boston College. Before the season started, this looked like it was just going to be another fun Thursday night game in Lane with a lot less at stake than just a conference win. Now it’s looking to be one of biggest home games of the year. Hopefully the Hokies can continue the weekly upheaval of the top 5 and knock off the #2 ranked Eagles.

I know the Tiger fans in Louisiana will be Hokie fans on Thursday night.

Quick Hits

• Since I haven’t written anything the last few weeks, I haven’t had a chance to say “thanks” to the Clemson faithful. I went down to Clemson on October 6th for Tech’s road game versus the Tigers. I had an absolute blast before, during, and after the game. I was amazed by the number of Clemson fans who said, “Thanks for coming” even after the game. They have an awesome tailgate scene, a great game environment, and some fun bars downtown. The two best things about the trip, other than the game: 1) They let you leave & re-enter the stadium at halftime and 2) they have lots of beautiful women.
• I’m sure all of you have seen the update regarding Tyrod Taylor’s injury and Mike Goforth’s optimism that Tyrod will be able to play on Thursday. The cynic in me thinks this “update” is purely for the BC coaching staff.
• I love our fan base. I think we accounted for half of the people in the stands at the Duke. When I arrived in Durham that morning, all I saw were Hokies tailgating. Even though it wasn’t a big game by any stretch of the imagination, the fans we brought to that game made it worth the trip. I stopped by the tailgate hosted by the RTP Chapter of the Alumni Association. It’s too bad the caterer had to close up shop at 11am.
• The more things change, the more things stay the same? That actually might be the case for the top 10. Six of the current top 10 teams were ranked in the top ten in the pre-season Coaches’ Poll. Ohio St (preseason 10th), LSU (2nd), Oklahoma(8th), West Virginia (6th), USC (1st), and Virginia Tech (9th) were all prepseason top 10 teams. So maybe things really aren’t all that different after all of the shakeups? Then again, maybe they are. The remaining current top 10 teams (Boston College, Oregon, Arizona State, and Kansas) were unranked in the preseason poll.
• Food for thought … Let’s say Boston College beats us, runs the table in the ACC, and finishes the season undefeated. Let’s say Ohio State finishes undefeated in a not so good Big Ten. Let’s also say LSU runs the table in the SEC and finishes with one loss. How do you rank the three of them? Personally, I’d put LSU atop the heap at #1, with BC #2, and Ohio State on the outside looking in. Hopefully the Hokies will take care of BC’s perfect record on Thursday and the point will be moot, but I still say LSU is the best team in the nation. The SEC is a beast of a conference this year, and I think a one-loss SEC team is better than an undefeated team from any other conference. Especially one that beat the hokies 48-7.

Categories: College Football, HokieHaven, VT Football
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.