ACC Divisional Scenarios
Posted at 8:00 am on Friday, November 9th, 2007 by Vince[The following post was published at HokieHaven.com on October 29, 2007.]
Unfortunately, I don’t have much of a blog update for this week. Work has been busy, and I haven’t had much time to write. Instead of leaving my readers empty handed, I took a few minutes to go over the various scenarios for both division races in the ACC. While there are three teams with just one conference loss, there are still a number of teams who can still win their division for a shot at the ACC Champsionship.
Here is what we know:
- NC State and Maryland have been eliminated from the Atlantic Division race.
- North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Duke have been eliminated from the Coastal race
- Boston College and Clemson control their respective destinies in the Atlantic
- Virginia Tech and Virginia control their respective destinies in the Coastal
The situation in the Coastal division is the more simple of the two, so I will start with it.
Virginia (5-1): The Cavaliers are in the driver’s seat of the Coastal. Regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s game at Miami, UVA will advance to the ACC Championship Game if they beat Virginia Tech on the last weekend of the regular season. If Virginia loses to Virginia Tech, they can back into the division title if they beat Miami, the Hokies lose back to back games to Florida State and Miami, and Miami loses their season finale to Boston College.
Virginia Tech (4-1): Virginia Tech also controls their own destiny in the Coastal Division. If the Hokies beat either Miami or Florida State, and then beat the Wahoos in Charlottesville on November 24th, then Virginia Tech will earn a trip to Jacksonville. If Miami beats Virginia this weekend, then the Hokies can still win the division if they lose to both Florida State and Miami provided Tech beats Virginia and the Hurricanes lose their season finale to Boston College. There is no scenario that allows Virginia Tech to go to the ACC Championship Game with a loss in Charlottesville.
Miami (2-3): Miami can still win the Coastal Division, but they would need some assistance by the Hokies. In order for the Hurricanes to earn a trip to Jacksonville they would need to win out (Virginia, at Virginia Tech, at Boston College), and Virginia Tech would have to beat Virginia at the end of the season after losing to both Florida State and Miami. This would create a three-way tie for first at 5-3, and Miami would win the tiebreaker because they would have beat both Tech and UVA. (Note: even though it’s possible North Carolina wins out and finishes at 5-3 to fit into that first place tie, Miami would still win the tiebreakers.)
While the Atlantic Division looks just as simple with Boston College leading, things can get pretty interesting if BC stumbles down the stretch. Because there there are actually a ton of permutations for the Atlantic crown right now, I’m going to go through the easiest path to the ACC Championship Game for the teams in contention there.
Boston College (4-1): BC still resides all alone at the top of the Atlantic Division. They just need to beat Clemson and beat either Maryland or Miami. This would put the Eagles at 6-2 or better with the possible tiebreakers over Clemson and Wake Forest should there be a tie for first place.
Clemson (4-2): Clemson has Wake Forest and Boston College remaining on their ACC schedule. If the Tigers beat them both, they would finish at 6-2, with a possible tiebreaker over BC, and Clemson would earn a trip to Jacksonville.
Wake Forest (4-2): While Wake has a good ACC record, they need a little help in order to advance the ACC Championship Game. Wake Forest needs to beat Clemson and North Carolina State to finish at 6-2. Because the Demon Deacons lost to Boston College in week 1, they would also need the Eagles to lose at least two of their last three games.
Florida State (3-3): Assuming I did my math correctly, it is still possible for Florida State to make to the ACC Championship Game. In addition to winning their two remaining ACC games (at Virginia Tech, and vs Maryland), the Seminoles need a whole lot of help from the divison rivals. Boston College would have to lose Maryland and Miami, but the Eagles would need to beat Clemson. Clemson would have to lose to Wake Forest and BC. Wake Forest would have to beat Clemson, but lose to NC State. North Carolina State would have to win out. This would create a four-way tie for first at 5-3, and the Seminoles would win the tiebreakers.
The situation in the Atlantic will become much more clear this weekend. Wake Forest and Clemson square off on Saturday in what is essentially an elimination game, and Florida State travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech. Come Sunday, the Atlantic could very well be a two horse race.