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What is the toughest conference in Division 1 basketball? Every year this question is debated by ex-players, ex-coaches, fans, and the media. This year I’ve heard many in the media say that the Pac-10, Big East, or ACC was the toughest. I have also heard a few people claim that the Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12 was the most difficult. The opinions change based on where folks are from. Bill is a Texan, and he says the Big 12 has the best basketball in the country. Sam grew up in New York. There’s not a doubt in his mind that the Big East the toughest conference. Jane is from Los Angeles. She says the Pac-10 is the best conference. Bob lives in North Carolina, the ACC is second to none in his mind.

But how exactly do we determine “the best” conference? Do we base it on the AP top 25? According to those rankings, the Big East comes out ahead, right? They have 5 teams ranked by the Associated Press, while the SEC, Pac-10, Big 12, and ACC each have 3 ranked teams. The Big Ten and Mountain West only have 2 each. Big Ten fans cry foul, “We’ve got the top 2 teams in the nation!” This is true, as the Big Ten has more top 10 teams (#1 Wisconsin, #2 Ohio State) than the Big East (#10 Pittsburgh). The Pac-10 (#4 UCLA, #9 Washington) and Big 12 (#6 Kansas, #8 Texas A&M) are each represented twice, while the SEC (#3 Florida) and ACC (#5 North Carolina) have one each.

The fact of the matter is the Top 25 rankings are there for TV ratings. When teams are ranked, they’re worth mentioning on Sportcenter, and the media can hype up the games involving ranked teams. Where teams are ranked has absolutely nothing to do with how they are seeded in the NCAA Tournament, nor does it indicate the depth of a particular conference.

March Madness is what it’s all about. Some might claim that the conference who has the most teams in the NCAA Tournament is the best conference in the land. While we won’t find this out for at least a few more weeks, we can use ESPN’s Bracketology for some conjecture. According to ESPN, if the tournament were to start today, 8 conferences would have received invitations for 3 or more teams: Big East (7), ACC (7), Pac-10 (6), SEC (5), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (3), Mountain West (3), and Missouri Valley Conference (3). Of that list, only the ACC and Pac-10 would have more than half of its teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Let’s break it down even further and see who gets the most top seeds:

According to Bracketology, who’s the best? The Big East and the ACC put the same number of top seeded teams in the tournament, but the Big East has 4 more teams than the ACC, so you’d have to give the nod to the ACC in that regard. The Pac-10 has 6 less teams than the Big East, so they deserve some credit as well. Let’s take a peek at the top 4 seeds from those three conferences according to Bracketology:

ESPN’s Bracketology is clearly giving respect to the Pac-10 and ACC, but I just can’t put much stock into their predictions. ESPN is trying to get folks to read their website and watch their TV channels. Bracketology is what they think would happen if the tournament started today. The tournament doesn’t start today, and they are not the committee that determines who gets invited.

Let’s forget about opinions for a moment. The AP Top 25 and ESPN’s Bracketology are just that – people’s opinions. To determine the best conference, let’s look at two things: head-to-head competition and the RPI. The results of head-to-head competition are the results of the games played on the court, and the RPI helps us figure out who the top tier teams are.

Sidenote: The RPI isn’t perfect. I know that. It’s only one factor that is used by the tournament committee when they determine who gets invited. I’m using it to see how conferences fair against the top teams from other conferences.

Over the weekend I created a database of all Division 1 conferences, teams, RPI rankings, and results of games involving two Division 1 teams. I did this so I could look everyone’s out of conference games and use that information to determine the best conference in college basketball. In my analysis, the first thing I did was calculate each conference’s record versus Division 1 teams outside their conference, as well as each conference’s record against teams outside their conference with a Top 40 RPI. Games matching up teams from the same conference are completely ignored in all records and statistics.

Even though there are a lot of numbers there, a few things pop out at me almost immediately. 1) There are 8 conferences with winning percentages over 0.700 versus non-conference Division 1 competition, and 2) only the ACC and the Pac-10 have winning records against non-conference opponents in the top 40 of the RPI.

The first point is interesting, as it basically falls along the line of the “high majors” versus the mid-majors. I believe the “high major” conferences are considered to be the ACC, Pac-10, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Conference USA. Based on those numbers, CUSA should not be considered a “high major” conference. What is surprising is the success of the Missouri Valley Conference (a “mid-major”) and Mountain West (a “high mid-major” conference). They don’t have a ton of non-conference games against teams in the top 40 of the RPI, but they have had some success. Also surprising is how badly the Big 12 has performed against non-conference top 40 RPI teams – they’re only 4-18 against the best other conferences have to offer.

Let’s analyze this a little further, and limit the scope of these numbers to games involving teams from only the 8 conferences with the best out-of-conferences records: ACC, Pac-10, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, MVC, and MtnWest. This set of numbers only shows head-to-head competition, so a game involving an ACC team and a CAA team is ignored, but a game involving an ACC team and a Big Ten team is included.

Ok, so there’s a lot of information there. Let me remind you again that those are records involving non-conference games against one of the top 8 conferences already mentioned. Also, you’ll notice that the Top 40 RPI records aren’t reciprocal. For example, the ACC is 5-2 against Big Ten opponents in the top 40 of the RPI, but the Big Ten is 2-7 against ACC opponents in the top 40. This is due to the ACC having more teams in the top 40 of the RPI than the Big Ten. Virginia Tech is in the top 40, but Iowa is not. VT’s win over Iowa doesn’t count as a Top 40 RPI win for the ACC, but it counts as a Top 40 RPI loss to the Big Ten.

After staring at those head-to-head numbers, I can only find two instances of one conference’s complete domination over another conference: the ACC over the Big Ten and the ACC over the SEC. Overall, the ACC is 10-3 vs teams from the Big Ten, and 8-4 over SEC teams. Looking at the Top 40 RPI column, the ACC is 5-2 vs the best Big Ten teams, while the Big Ten is 2-7 against the best ACC teams. The SEC fairs even worse as they’re winless against ACC teams in the top 40 of the RPI, while the ACC is 4-2 against top 40 RPI SEC teams.

You must also priase the Pac-10, as they have slightly better winning percentages than the ACC versus the best out-of-conference competition. It clear to me that the Pac-10 and ACC are the two best conferences in all of college basketball. They are the only two conferences with winning records against non-conference teams in the top 40 of the RPI, and they have the highest overall out-of-conference winning percentages.

If I had to choose a between the Pac-10 and the ACC, I would go with the ACC. Based on the winning percentages, it is virtually a coin flip with the Pac-10 having the edge, but look more closely. The Pac-10 has only played 12 non-conference teams from the top 40 of the RPI, while the ACC has played 24 such teams. Only the Big East and Big Ten has played more top 40 RPI teams, and they each have 4 less wins.

At this point I will give the crown of the “best conference” to the ACC simply because they have put themselves out there, and they have won. That said, who knows what’s going to happen come tournament time.

Note: The RPI used in these figures was fetched at 12:30 AM EST on 20 Feb 2007.

Categories: ACC, College Basketball
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