Hokies control their own destiny
Posted at 2:00 pm on Wednesday, February 28th, 2007 by Vince[The following post was originally published at HokieHaven.com on February 26, 2007.]
Thanks to Maryland’s upset over North Carolina, our Virginia Tech Hokies (10-6) find themselves in a 3-way tie for first place of the ACC. If the men’s basketball team can beat the University of Virginia on Thursday and Clemson on Sunday, they will earn the #1 seed for the 2007 ACC Tournament. Because they swept UNC, Tech will hold the tiebreaker over the Tarheels should they win out as well. Simply put – the Hokies control their own destiny for the first place seed in the ACC Tournament.
That’s the easy scenario, but what will happen if they don’t win out? Things start to get complicated. Let’s take a quick peek at how the ACC breaks ties. (Note: these rules were published prior to the 2001 tournament. I am assuming they haven’t changed since then.)
- When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tie-breaker.
- If the two teams split their regular season games, the tie is broken by comparing each team’s records against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, and then continuing down until one team gains an advantage.
- If three or more teams are tied, the combined record of each team against the other teams involved is used to break the tie. After this procedure, if two teams remain tied procedure 2 is followed.
- If procedures 2 and/or 3 fail to establish an advantage, a coin-flip to break the tie will be conducted by the Commissioner.
- If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie breaking procedures you come to a pair of teams tied, a team’s record against combined tied teams is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.
Now that we are armed with knowledge, let’s take a look at the top of the current ACC standings:
| Virginia Tech | 10-4 |
| North Carolina | 10-4 |
| Virginia | 10-4 |
| Boston College | 10-5 |
| Maryland | 8-6 |
| Duke | 8-6 |
For each team, starting at the bottom and working my way up, I’m going to tell you the best seed for the ACC tournament they can earn, no matter how crazy the scenario. (Note: The ACC does not recognize a regular season champion. Their tie breakers are used specifically for seeding in the tournament.)
Duke (8-6) Remaining games: vs Maryland, @ UNC. Best possible finish: 10-6 Best possible seed: #3
Duke can head to the ACC Tournament as the 3-seed if they win their remaining games and BC, UNC, and either VT or UVA lose their remaining games. Virginia Tech or UVA would be in 1st place, and BC and Maryland would finish outside the top 4. Duke can also achieve a first-round bye if BC loses to Georgia Tech, and the Blue Devils win out.
Maryland (8-6) Remaining games: @ Duke, vs NC State. Best possible finish: 10-6 Best possible seed: #4
In order for Maryland to earn a first-round bye in the ACC tourney, they will need to win out, have UNC lose their remaining games, BC beat Georgia Tech, and have VT and UVA finish at 11-5 or better. This would cause 2-way tie for 4th place between the Terps and the Tarheels, and Maryland holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over UNC because of their win on Sunday.
Boston College (10-5) Remaining game: vs Georgia Tech. Best possible finish: 11-5 Best possible seed: #1
It’s pretty simple (albeit virtually impossible) for Boston College to finish at the top of the ACC standings – beat Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia Tech lose their remaining games, and Virginia loses to Wake Forest after beating the Hokies. This would cause BC and UVA to both finish at 11-5, and BC holds the tiebreaker over UVA due to their win over the Hoos back in January. Boston College is more likely headed for the #3 or #4 seed. In order to earn a 1st round bye they need to either beat Georgia Tech or have Duke lose at least one more game.
Virginia (10-4) Remaining games: vs Virginia Tech, @ Wake Forest. Best possible finish: 12-4 Best possible seed: #1
Due to the fact that UNC beat UVA earlier this year, Virginia will need North Carolina to lose at least once if the they beat both Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The worst the Cavs can do is the 4-seed.
North Carolina (10-4) Remaining games: @ Georgia Tech, vs Duke. Best possible finish: 12-4 Best possible seed: #1
Like Virginia, this is simple for the Tarheels. They need to win out. If they finish 12-4, then they will finish with the 1-seed if Virginia Tech loses at least once, and they will finish with the 2-seed if Virginia Tech wins out. If UNC splits their last two, then they will be the 4-seed if UVA wins out, and BC and VT both win their final games. This will cause those 3 teams to be tied for 2nd at 11-5, and the Tarheels would come out at the bottom of that threesome. It is possible for North Carolina to finish outside of the top 4, but that’s only in the super-crazy Maryland scenario.
Virginia Tech (10-4) Remaining games: @ Georgia Tech, vs Duke. Best possible finish: 12-4 Best possible seed: #1
As has been already noted, the Virginia Tech Hokies now control their own destiny. If they beat Virginia and Clemson, they will be the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Things get interesting if that doesn’t happen.
First off, the worst case scenario: VT loses out and finishes at 10-6. If Boston College beats Georgia Tech, then the Hokies would be the 4-seed regardless of what Duke and Maryland do, because they didn’t lose to either. If Tech does finish at 10-6, there are many scenarios that can play out. It would still be possible for VT to finish with the 2-seed if North Carolina lost its remaining games, Boston College lost, and Maryland won its final 2 games. However, it’s not really worth the time and effort to go into the detail of every scenario if the Hokies finish 10-6.
If Virginia Tech loses to Virginia and beats Clemson, they will finish at 11-5 and will need some help. If Virginia and North Carolina win out, then UNC will grab the 1-seed and UVA will grab the 2-seed. VT would take the 3-seed regardless of BC’s game at GT. If UVA wins out, but UNC loses at least once, then Tech will grab the 2-seed behind UVA. However, if UVA loses to Wake Forest and UNC loses a game, then there will be a 3-way or 4-way tie for first place depending on BC. Virginia Tech would come out on top of that group to grab the 1-seed.
Finally, if Virginia Tech beats Virginia on Thursday, but loses to Clemson, they would grab the 1-seed if North Carolina loses a game and the 2-seed if North Carolina wins out.
After running through these scenarios, I’ve noticed a common thread for teams other than Virginia Tech and North Carolina – they all need the Tarheels to lose. UNC certainly doesn’t have an easy week, but I will be surprised if they don’t win out. Also, even though it’s possible for Duke or Maryland to earn a first-round bye, I just don’t see it happening. VT and UVA have already locked up byes, and BC and UNC don’t need much to happen to finish in the top 4.